IStock Photo 571962 © Jason Lugo

The Indianapolis Colts were thrilled to have the No. 1 overall pick in the 1990 NFL Draft. They proudly and confidently selected Illinois quarterback Jeff George, and looked forward to many successful years with him calling their signals.

As it turned out, George would be a colossal bust in Indianapolis; he had a 14-39 record as a starting quarterback and never turned the franchise around. The Colts had no way of knowing it then, but their poor play on George's watch became a blessing. By 1997, after three mediocre seasons with Jim Harbaugh as their QB—George was long gone by then—they slipped to 3-13 and "earned" the top pick in the NFL Draft. With that selection, they took another quarterback who would do everything George couldn't, and much more. So far, Peyton Manning has led the league in passing twice, won a Super Bowl, is a 10-time Pro Bowler and is on the fast track to the Hall of Fame.

Just goes to show you how important it is not to make a mistake when holding the coveted top pick in the Draft, owned this year by the St. Louis Rams. By all indications, the Rams will indeed select a quarterback, Sam Bradford of Oklahoma, to kick off the NFL Draft in prime time Thursday night. And then they will hold their breath.

Because for every Peyton Manning, there is a Jeff George. For every Terry Bradshaw, there is a Tim Couch. For every Troy Aikman, there is a JaMarcus Russell.

Historically, whenever a quarterback is selected with the No. 1 overall pick of the NFL Draft, it is anything but a recipe for instant success. The odds a football player selected in the 1st round of the NFL Draft was a quarterback in college are 1 in 13.13, but the odds for the first pick are much higher: since the NFL-AFL merger of 1970, a quarterback has been taken No. 1 overall 17 times, odds of 1 in 2.35. Of that group, ten have gone on to the Pro Bowl (1 in 1.7, or 58.9%), six have won a Super Bowl (1 in 2.83, or 35.3%), and three—Aikman, Bradshaw, and John Elway—have been enshrined in Canton (1 in 5.67, or 17.6%).

As we can see, a franchise putting its hopes on a QB taken with the overall top pick is no sure thing. It is perhaps too early to judge Matthew Stafford of the Lions (2009) and Alex Smith of the 49ers (2005), though Stafford has shown signs of leading Detroit out of its perpetual wilderness and Smith has not impressed nearly as much as Bay area fans have hoped. But Russell, taken No. 1 overall by the Raiders in 2007, is widely considered a bust, as are David Carr (Texans, 2002), George, and Couch (Browns, 1999).

Some, like Vinny Testaverde (Bucs, 1987) and Steve Bartkowski (Falcons, 1975) had limited ceilings playing for bad teams. Others reached the mountaintop with other organizations: Elway was taken first overall by the Colts in 1983 after making it known he would refuse to play for that organization and forced a trade. He was dealt to the Broncos, and the rest is history. There was also Jim Plunkett (Patriots, 1971), who won a Super Bowl not in New England, but with the Raiders in 1983.

Then there is the case of Michael Vick (Falcons, 2001), who went to the Pro Bowl three times before being jailed for his involvement in dog fighting. It remains to be seen whether he—and his reputation—will ever return to previous levels.

It should be noted that teams looking for a quick fix at the QB position should look elsewhere. Manning's Colts were a .500 team through his first four years in the NFL before he reached the age of 26, when he led Indy to the first of nine consecutive postseason appearances, a streak that remains intact. Peyton's younger brother Eli didn't win a playoff game until his fourth full season as a starter with the Giants, when he led New York to its third Super Bowl triumph (Eli was taken first overall by the Chargers in 2004 before a draft-day deal with the Giants). And Aikman sputtered through a 7-19 record as a starter in two years with a bad Cowboys team before a renaissance that led to Dallas winning three Super Bowls.

Here's the list of the 17 quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall since 1970, with their Super Bowl championships (SBC) and Pro Bowl appearances (PB).

Prior to 1970, a quarterback was tabbed with the first overall pick 11 times, and only two of them—Roman Gabriel (1962) and Bill Wade (1952), both picked by the Los Angeles Rams—earned Pro Bowl status (1 in 5.5). The most notable name among the others on that list is George Shaw. Never heard of him? He was taken with the No. 1 pick of the Draft by the Colts (hmm, see a pattern here?) in 1955 and was Baltimore's starting QB until he was injured in the fifth game of the 1956 season. His backup came in, and Shaw never reclaimed his starting job. You might have heard of the fellow who relieved Shaw—a guy named Johnny Unitas. It's interesting to note that only one of the QBs taken with the Draft's first selection prior to 1970 led his team to the NFL championship. That was Wade, who moved on to Chicago and won the title with the Bears in 1963.

So in the history of the NFL, only 12 of the 28 quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall in the draft have been named to the Pro Bowl (1 in 2.33, or 42.9%) and only seven of them (1 in 4, or 25%) have won championships—not great numbers for such a sizable investment, and something the Rams should keep in mind should they ultimately hand Bradford the keys to the franchise on Thursday.

See our related thread: Super Bowl Destiny