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Founder's Blog

The Tiger Woods Question

IStock Photo 4277879 © saluha

With Tiger Woods’ personal life among the most talked about tempests in the public teapot, we have been asked by many sources about the odds of car accidents, golf accidents, and above all, male marital infidelity. Leaving aside the question of whether those in the public eye cheat more or less than others, and frankly, giving Tiger the benefit of the doubt as to his behavior, we can say something about American men in general, a group even the best golfer in the world belongs to.

As many of you know by now the odds an ever-married or cohabiting man has cheated during the relationship are 1 in 4.76. How common is that? Well, it is more likely than it is a man will attend a Major League Baseball game in a year (1 in 6.07), or a woman smokes (1 in 5.43), or an adult is afraid of mice (1 in 5). Pretty common.

As of this writing we know that many people know this statistic since it has been widely reported on many sites such as Yahoo Shine and quoted by many media outlets.

We know something more about 9,835 people who as of this writing have visited our site and checked the detailed Odds Statement page for the cheating odds.

This page has some buttons users can hit to put Odds Statements of interest in their completely private “My Book of Odds.” One is an “interesting” thumbs-up button, which allows users to collect those Odds Statements they like or want to use for calibration or comparison to other Odds Statements. Fifteen people have hit that button.

There is also our iconic red spot button which means this Odds Statement relates to me. Hit it and the statement is added to the “Odds Like Me” list on the private “My Book of Odds” page. Hit enough of these and a person can create a personalized version of the Book of Odds, containing only Odds Statements which describe aspects of themselves. How many people have clicked the “Add to Odds Like Me” button? Zero.

If we assume the 9,835 folks are all over 15 and are distributed by gender and marital status just like the rest of the US population, this sample would include 4,751 males (1 in 2.07). Of these, 2,654 would be married or in committed relationships (1 in 1.79). And of these we can expect on balance that 557 fellows will have cheated on their partners.

Of course these assumptions could be wrong. Perhaps this sample is biased to include more cheating men than average or more women curious about their exposure. The main point wouldn’t change though. However many cheating men are included in the sample, given the chance to identify this Odds Statement as applying to them, as of this writing, no one has.

Whatever may or may not have transpired in Tiger Woods’ life, when asked the implicit question—does this apply to you?—no one as of 3:30 Eastern Time on December 3, 2009 has answered the Tiger Woods question in the affirmative.

They have taken, it seems, the advice of Shaggy. Just say, " It wasn’t me."

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Comments (2)

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anonymous
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Whatever it is that is in his life, is there for a reason. He has to find the reason. Whatever it is that is in his life that is negative is there for him to learn how to act on it and make it positive.

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oklana
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Tiger Woods has been fingered in the tabloids for having an affair on his wife with some lady named Rachel Uchitel, and that leads to a lot of searches for <a rev="vote for" title="Tiger Woods Mistress Photos | The Next Distraction" href="http://personalmoneystore.com/moneyblog/2009/11/30/tiger-woods-mistress-photos/ ">Tiger Woods Mistress Pictures</a>. This is undeniable proof that a lot of people need a hobby and really are just that bored, probably from actually watching golf. (I don’t mean to disparage the game, but that’s such a good joke that I’m going to keep it.) To top it off, he also
got into a car accident driving his Escalade near his Florida home, and rumors began about domestic disturbances. Naturally, people are willing to give payday loans to also see Tiger Woods accident photos.




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Amram Shapiro

President and Founder

Amram Shapiro

Why Book of Odds? "Book of Odds began with a simple question: Why are we able to get information about so many subjects so easily, yet not about the most vital and interesting subject—the probabilities of everyday life? Answering this question became my mission and the business idea that followed met the criteria I had set for myself when I looked for the next thing to do in my life: it is worthwhile, meaningful and has a reason to exist long after my lifetime."

Favorite Quote -

"Chance favors the prepared mind." - Louis Pasteur and a biased sample of world-class scientists

"The more I practice, the luckier I get." - Gene Sarazen and a biased sample of world-class athletes

As Founder and President of Book of Odds, Amram Shapiro, has seen Book of Odds from its birth in 2006, through its three-year development phase, to its launch in October 2009, to its present growth and redesign phase. Amram is responsible for setting strategic direction at Book of Odds and building strategic relationships with other organizations interested in the Book of Odds mission.

Prior to Book of Odds, Amram served as Director at Arthur D Little (ADL) and at Pittiglio, Rabin, Todd & McGrath (PRTM). At ADL he led the Strategic Management of Technology practice and developed the strategies of large, successful startups such as FlightSafety International. As part of PRTM’s management team, he helped grow a $20 million regional firm into a global firm with revenues over $250 million. As practice leader for PACE, he built it into the premier new product development consulting offering around the globe. He developed the PRTM benchmarking organization and helped launch the Asian Region. He was co-author of the ground-breaking "Product Development, Success through Product And Cycle-time Excellence" (Butterworth-Heinemann, 1992). He has also contributed to numerous journals including PRTM’s Insight, Research Technology Management and CFO.

Amram graduated magna cum laude with a Bachelor of Arts degree from Columbia College and has received his Masters of Business Administration degree from the Harvard University Graduate School of Business Administration.

Favorite Odds Statement: The odds an adult has ever eaten cold pizza for breakfast are 1 in 2.56 (US, 5/2005).

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