Do teenagers in the United States take chances because they believe nothing can happen to them, how many expected to die young, and what did that expectation predict about their lives years later? A national study of US students surveyed from 1995 to 2002 answers the second and third parts, and a 2006 paper on adolescent decision making takes up the first.
The 1995 answer
In 1995, 14.7 percent of 20,594 US students in grades 7 to 12 said there was at least a 50/50 chance they would not live to age 35. That is about 1 in 7 (our arithmetic: 100 divided by 14.7). The figure is self-reported: it is the students’ own estimate of their chances, not a measure of how long they actually lived.
The data come from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, which the study’s authors describe as a nationally representative sample of US youth in grades 7 through 12. The same young people were surveyed again in 1996 and in 2001 to 2002. The results were published in the journal Pediatrics in 2009, with a lead author from the University of Minnesota.
What the belief predicted
In the researchers’ adjusted models, a belief in early death in 1995 predicted each of these outcomes in the 1996 survey, the 2001 to 2002 survey, or both: a suicide attempt, a fight-related injury, a police arrest, unsafe sexual activity and a diagnosis of HIV/AIDS. It did not predict later illicit drug use.
The strongest link was with a later HIV/AIDS diagnosis: an adjusted odds ratio of 7.13 (95 percent confidence interval 2.50 to 20.36). An odds ratio compares the odds of an outcome in two groups; it is not a direct multiple of how common the outcome was in each group. The wide interval means the estimate is imprecise.
“Predicted” is the study’s word for a statistical association. It does not show cause and effect.
It ran both ways
The link also ran in the other direction. Illicit drug use, a suicide attempt, a fight-related injury, a police arrest, unsafe sexual activity and an HIV/AIDS diagnosis each predicted a belief in early death in the 1996 survey, the 2001 to 2002 survey, or both, with adjusted odds ratios from 1.26 to 5.12. The authors conclude that risk behaviors predicted the belief 1 and 7 years later, and that the belief, in turn, predicted serious health outcomes in young adulthood.
Do teens feel invulnerable?
A 2006 paper in Psychological Science in the Public Interest, by researchers at Cornell University and Temple University, looks at how adolescents make decisions about risk. Among the findings it calls counterintuitive: adolescents “do not perceive themselves to be invulnerable,” and they “typically overestimate important risks, such as HIV and lung cancer.” The paper also says adolescents’ goals “are more likely to maximize immediate pleasure.”
Its abstract gives no survey figure, so it adds no odds of its own.
The short version
In a nationally representative US survey, about 1 in 7 students in grades 7 to 12 in 1995 said they had at least a 50/50 chance of not living to 35. That belief predicted later suicide attempts, injuries from fights, arrests, unsafe sexual activity and HIV/AIDS diagnoses in the 1996 survey, the 2001 to 2002 survey, or both, and those behaviors also predicted the belief.
The 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline says, “The 988 Lifeline is available 24/7/365. Your conversations are free and confidential.” Call or text 988, or chat with a 988 Lifeline counselor, anytime, day or night.
Last checked: 2026-10-20, against the PubMed abstracts of Borowsky, Ireland and Resnick (Pediatrics, 2009) and Reyna and Farley (Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 2006), and the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline home page. This article was machine-checked against the sources above and has not been expert-reviewed. Spotted an error or a newer public figure? Please tell us on our contact page with the article link and we will review it.
Sources
- S1 Borowsky IW, Ireland M, Resnick MD. “Health status and behavioral outcomes for youth who anticipate a high likelihood of early death.” Pediatrics, July 2009, 124(1):e81 to e88. https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2008-3425 . PubMed abstract (PMID 19564273), saved copy accessed Oct 20, 2026.
- S2 Reyna VF, Farley F. “Risk and Rationality in Adolescent Decision Making: Implications for Theory, Practice, and Public Policy.” Psychological Science in the Public Interest, September 2006, 7(1):1 to 44. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1529-1006.2006.00026.x . PubMed abstract (PMID 26158695), saved copy accessed Oct 20, 2026.
- S3 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline, home page. https://988lifeline.org/ . Saved copy accessed Oct 20, 2026.
- Method: the “about 1 in 7” is Book of Odds arithmetic from the 14.7 percent in S1.