Book of Odds

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How Rare Were Three Wild Card Rematches?

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By , edited by Nora Whitfield

Published · Updated · 4 min read

Fact-checked by Priya Anand

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What were the odds that three of the four NFL wild card games in January 2010 would be rematches of games played one week earlier, in Week 17? At the time, Book of Odds put them at 1 in 1,725, or about 1 in 1,700, from a simple model whose assumptions are set out below.

What happened in January 2010

On January 3, 2010, the last week of the 2009 regular season, the Jets beat the Bengals 37 to 0, the Cowboys beat the Eagles 24 to 0 and the Packers beat the Cardinals 33 to 7. Six and seven days later (our arithmetic), the same three pairs met again in the wild card round:

  • January 9: Jets at Bengals (AFC), Jets won 24 to 14. Rematch.
  • January 9: Eagles at Cowboys (NFC), Cowboys won 34 to 14. Rematch.
  • January 10: Ravens at Patriots (AFC), Ravens won 33 to 14. Not a rematch.
  • January 10: Packers at Cardinals (NFC), Cardinals won 51 to 45 in overtime. Rematch.

That made two rematches in the NFC and one in the AFC.

How the 2010 estimate was built

The 2010 page took one conference at a time and printed these figures:

  • About 27 percent: the chance that all four wild card teams in one conference had played conference opponents in Week 17.
  • About 1 percent: the chance that, given that, both of that conference’s games would be rematches.
  • Together, about 0.27 percent, or about 1 in 364, for the conference with two rematches.
  • About 10.5 percent, or about 1 in 9.5, for the other conference producing exactly one rematch.
  • A factor of 2, because either conference could be the one with two rematches.

Multiplied together, the page gave 0.00058, or 1 in 1,725. Multiply the rounded figures above and you get about 1 in 1,764 instead (our arithmetic). Use the page’s own 1 in 364 and its three rows, which add to 10.56 percent, and you get about 1 in 1,723 (our arithmetic). The gap comes from rounding, which is why we say about 1 in 1,700 (our inference).

The page stated its assumptions in a note under the figure:

“these odds are for any random season for which all teams are considered equal. It also assumes the schedule is evenly distributed (taking divisional games into account would require many more calculations producing only a small change).”

We have not rebuilt the model. About 1 in 1,700 stands as our 2010 estimate, under those assumptions and no others.

How the playoffs have changed

In 2009 the playoffs had 12 teams, six per conference (our arithmetic), and the wild card round had four games. That left two teams in each conference with a bye (our arithmetic). Starting with the 2020 season, NFL clubs voted to expand the field from 12 teams to 14. Now only the No. 1 seed in each conference gets a bye, and each conference plays three wild card games: 2 hosts 7, 3 hosts 6 and 4 hosts 5. That makes six wild card games instead of four (our arithmetic).

The 2010 model was built for two games per conference. It does not carry over to the six game round, and we are not offering odds for the current format.

For another NFL question about chance, see Does the Super Bowl Coin Toss Matter?

The short version

Three of the four NFL wild card games on January 9 and 10, 2010 were Week 17 rematches. Book of Odds put the odds at 1 in 1,725 in 2010, or about 1 in 1,700, using a model that treats all teams as equal and the schedule as evenly spread. That estimate fits the old four game round only.

Last checked: 2026-10-20, against ESPN’s 2009 NFL schedule pages for Week 17 and the wild card round and NFL Football Operations’ 2020 announcement of the 14 team postseason. This article was machine-checked against the sources above and has not been expert-reviewed. Spotted an error or a newer public figure? Please tell us on our contact page with the article link and we will review it.

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Sources

What changed
  • Wild card rematch odds: the old page gave the odds that three of four NFL wild card games would be Week 17 rematches as 1 in 1,725 and compared that figure with the odds of a lung cancer diagnosis in a year (1 in 1,668), being on the kidney donation waiting list (1 in 3,496) and winning ten dollars in Mega Millions (1 in 844). The rewrite keeps 1 in 1,725, rounded to about 1 in 1,700, as our dated 2010 estimate with its assumptions and steps, notes that the rounded steps it printed multiply to about 1 in 1,764 while its own 1 in 364 and row total give about 1 in 1,723, drops the three comparisons because they had no saved source and are out of date, and adds the 14 team playoff format used since the 2020 season.

✱ The Outlier

Be the interesting one at dinner.

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