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Does the Super Bowl Coin Toss Matter?

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By , edited by Nora Whitfield

Published · 6 min read

Fact-checked by Priya Anand

Last checked · Suggest a correction

How often has the team that won the Super Bowl coin toss gone on to win the game: about 3 in 4, about half, or under half?

Under half. Across 60 Super Bowls, the toss winner won the game 26 times, or 43%, by our count from the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s coin toss table and the NFL’s game books. That is no better than a coin flip (our inference).

The count covers the opening toss of every Super Bowl from I to LX; the overtime tosses in Super Bowls LI and LVIII are left out. The toss winner is the team named by the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s coin toss table for Super Bowls I to LVI and by the NFL game books for LVII to LX. The game result is the final score, and every count and streak below is our arithmetic from those records.

Two published tallies agree on the count before Super Bowl LX: USA Today and Sporting News both put toss winners at 26 wins in 59 games. The toss winner then lost Super Bowl LX, which leaves the total at 26 of 60.

Strip chart of all 60 Super Bowls, I to LX: the coin toss winner won the game 26 times and lost 34, including 8 losses in a row from XLIX to LVI.
Pro Football Hall of Fame (2022); NFL game books (LVII to LX); our count. Accessed Oct 19, 2026. Download this chart (2400 by 1260 PNG). Source: Book of Odds, bookofodds.com

Why winning the toss can mean so little

The prize for winning the toss is a choice, and recent winners have put it off. In the four NFL game books we used, the toss winner did not take the ball first. The books for Super Bowls LVII, LVIII and LIX read “KC wins the coin toss and elects to defer,” and the book for LX reads “NE wins the coin toss and elects to defer.” Those are four games, not a rule, and we have no count of how often winners defer over all 60 games.

Put as odds, winning the toss has been followed by winning the game about 4 times in 10 (our arithmetic). A fair coin would predict the champion at least as well (our inference), and it costs less to keep.

Eight losses in a row

From Super Bowl XLIX to LVI, the team that won the toss lost the game 8 times in a row. NBC Sports Philadelphia records the same run: “Prior to Super Bowl LVII, the winner of the coin toss went on to lose the game in eight straight Super Bowls.” The Chiefs ended it in Super Bowl LVII by winning both the toss and the game.

Since then the record has split evenly: the toss winner won LVII and LVIII and lost LIX and LX. The longest run the other way is short. Toss winners have never won the game more than 3 Super Bowls in a row, and that has happened three times.

Heads or tails

This part rests on published tallies, not on the Hall of Fame table or the NFL game books. Those name the toss winner, and the game books add its choice, but none of them says whether the coin landed heads or tails or who called it.

Per the game by game lists published by NBC Sports Philadelphia and SB Nation, which run through Super Bowl LX, the coin has landed tails 31 times and heads 29 times. The lists from Sporting News and USA Today stop at LIX and give the same results for every game they cover. None of the four names its source, so their agreement is not independent confirmation.

By the same tallies, toss winners won the game 13 times on heads and 13 times on tails (our arithmetic). News reports give the call for only four games, all recent: the Chiefs called tails and won the toss in Super Bowls LVII and LIX, the 49ers chose tails and the coin came up heads in LVIII, and the Seahawks called tails and the coin landed on heads in LX. Who called what in the other 56 is not on record in our sources.

A curiosity, found after looking

Since Super Bowl V, NFC teams have won the opening toss 35 times and AFC teams 21 times. That includes 14 NFC toss wins in a row, from Super Bowl XXXII to XLV. The first four Super Bowls matched the AFL against the NFL, and each league won the toss twice.

That run is a pattern found after looking at the data. Search any long record of coin tosses and some streak will look striking, so a run spotted this way proves nothing about the coin or either conference. The AFC has its own run now, 6 toss wins in a row from LV to LX.

Data limits

The count uses the opening toss only and leaves out the overtime tosses in Super Bowls LI and LVIII. Heads or tails results come only from published tallies that agree with one another but name no source, and we found no official record of any result. News reports give the call for only four games, LVII to LX. Every count and streak here is our arithmetic from the Hall of Fame table and the NFL game books.

The short version

In 60 Super Bowls, the team that won the opening coin toss won the game 26 times, or 43%: no better than a coin flip (our inference). Toss winners also lost 8 in a row, from XLIX to LVI. Super Bowl LXI, in February 2027, adds a row, and this page will be rechecked then.

Last checked: 2026-10-19, against the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s coin toss table, the NFL game books for Super Bowls LVII to LX, and published coin toss tallies. This article was machine-checked against the sources above and has not been expert-reviewed. Spotted an error or a newer public figure? Please tell us on our contact page with the article link and we will review it.

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