IStock Photo 3614159 © Dr. Heinz Linke

Twice a year, in late February and late July, thousands of would-be lawyers face one final hurdle before they can start practicing law and paying off the $100,000 in debt they carry on average: passing the bar exam. But if the last few years are any indication, law students have something to smile about: in 2008, 71 percent of test-takers passed, the highest since 1994. That means the odds of passing are 1 in 1.41 (71%).

The odds do vary dramatically with location, and probably more because of variation in the tests than uneven student quality. Different states’ bar exams differ drastically. In aggregate, the 51 exams (50 states plus Washington, DC) test 30 different subjects. Three states ask about only 12 areas of the law; six others require knowledge of 19. Montana has the highest passing rate, with 1 in 1.09 (92%) making the grade, but for California’s notoriously difficult exam, which quizzes applicants on 17 subjects, the odds of passage are just 1 in 1.85 (54%)—the worst for any state.

At least the 46% who failed can take comfort in knowing that California’s bar exam has long flummoxed accomplished lawyers and prominent leaders. Former governor Jerry Brown— who will run again in next year’s contest—failed the test on his first try. Former governor Pete Wilson took four tries to pass, and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa gave up after his fourth failure. Even Kathleen Sullivan, the former Stanford Law School dean and a candidate for the Supreme Court before President Obama eventually nominated Sonia Sotomayor, failed on her first attempt. The California test is so long—three days, instead of the two in most states—that Wilson once lamented that if he hadn’t learned to type, “I would never have passed it.” Of course, none of them had the advantage of the latest iPhone app, released just in time to help the Golden State’s 2010 crop of attorneys-in-waiting.

California’s politicos aren’t alone: Hillary Clinton, John F. Kennedy Jr., and Chicago’s Richard Daley all failed their first bar exams. In general, those who fail on their first try face an uphill climb: just 1 in 2.6 repeat test-takers pass.

That may soon change, though. Many repeat testers have already passed the bar in one state, and they’re poised to get a boost from the National Conference of Bar Examiners, which has developed a standardized bar exam that would let lawyers practice in several states after taking a single exam. Ten states say they’ll likely switch to the new exam next year, and another 22 jurisdictions are expected to do so in the next few years—a move the National Law Journal says could do the most to reshape lawyering in America “since the first US bar exam was given in Delaware in 1763.” In the meantime, law graduates should keep trying, with the knowledge that it can’t be worse than it was for Maxcy Dean Filer, the California native who finally passed the bar in 1991 on his 48th attempt.