IStock Photo 1860284 © Nancy Catherine Walker

As the college year winds down, many students are asking themselves two hard questions. How long is it really going to take to get their degree? And can they afford to keep going?

When Isabel Cortez was accepted to San Jose State, she saw it as an affordable way to get a solid education and a degree, and to take advantage of one of the best statewide higher-education systems in the country.

But as economic conditions worsened, San Jose State cut classes. Cortez found that dozens of required courses were full, with waiting lists as long as a hundred students. Cortez, a 21-year-old California native, has turned to the local community college to fulfill her requirements; but even there, she’s had to settle for overflowing classes and tough registrations.

“Let’s say there were 8 sections; now there are 5, and they filled up really fast,” she says. “It’s just really frustrating. Everybody’s going to JCs (junior colleges like San Jose City), but even those are packed.”

Cortez isn’t alone in finding it hard to complete all the steps towards her degree. As colleges have cut classes and faculty, it’s become harder for students to graduate within six years—never mind the traditional four. Cortez says that many of her friends have had graduation dates pushed back by four semesters because there are too many students vying for too few spots in required courses.

Based on the most recent data available, the odds that a student at a four-year public college or university will graduate within four years are 1 in 3.45; within 6 years the odds are 1 in 1.82(55%). At some schools, like University of Massachusetts, Boston, just 33% of incoming freshmen graduate in that time frame.

The problem is especially pronounced in California, where a devastating budget shortfall has crippled the budgets of its once-vaunted public education system. As legislators have slashed funds, many frustrated students have simply dropped out. The odds a student will drop out of a public college are 1 in 6.58, but many experts expect these odds to increase, as other states cut aid, and more and more students like Cortez find that public colleges aren’t meeting their education needs.

Students enrolled in private colleges and universities are much less likely to leave school before earning their diplomas. The odds a first-time student at a four-year private non-profit college or university will drop out of school during a six-year timeframe are 1 in 10.75.