IStock Photo 7793204 © Gregory Olsen

The statistics say that rape is a less common crime today than in the past—and that’s good news. Or is it? Forcible rape rates have been steadily declining for years, from 109,062 incidents in 1992 to 89,000 in 2008, according to FBI statistics.

But when it comes to rape, statistics are misleading. The FBI data is based on reported crimes, but according to the National Crime Victimization Survey, which surveys individuals directly, fewer than half (1 in 2.4) of the victims of a rape or attempted rape report the crime to police. Rapes are much less likely to be reported to the authorities than other crimes, like physical assaults and robberies.

There are a myriad of reasons for the underreporting. One major factor is that the majority of rapes and sexual assaults (1 in 1.73—58%) are committed by someone known to the victim, often someone who's a part of the victim’s immediate environment—a family member, a friend, colleague—or all too often, a classmate.

College campuses are places where many experts believe rapes fly under the radar. Allegations can be difficult to prove in the absence of physical evidence or witnesses. False allegations muddy the waters too, like the highly publicized charges against the Duke Lacrosse team in 2006.

But when real sexual crimes are not prosecuted, the result is a more dangerous campus environment. In 2002, Dr David Lisak studied 1,882 male college students and found that most campus rapes are committed not by young men confused about consent but by repeat-offender sociopaths.

Recently the Center for Public Integrity released the results of a year-long inquiry echoing that earlier finding. The report asserts that many collegiate sexual assaults are committed by serial offenders, and that all too often there are “undetected rapists” on campus. The Center reviewed records of 33 alleged sexual assaults, as well as a decade’s worth of complaints filed under Title IX and the Clery Act, a 1990 federal law mandating colleges and universities issue an annual report detailing crimes on campus. The report concludes that while many victims have their lives upended—often dropping out of school—students found culpable for sexual assault seldom faced expulsion or received any other significant form of punishment.

According to Security on Campus, the nation’s leading advocacy group for safer campuses, one in ten college women will be raped during her years in college. This number is viewed in some quarters as far too conservative. A 2000 study released by the Department of Justice estimated that over the course of a college career, the percentage of female students who will be the victims of a completed or attempted rape might be as high as 20% to 25%.

Skeptics point out that these higher estimates would translate into nearly a quarter of a million women victimized out of the roughly six million women attending four-year colleges every year—a percentage which would make campuses more dangerous to women than the most crime-ridden cities.

For now, all that is certain is that when it comes to rape, there are no solid statistics.

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