IStock Photo 3059041 © Rob Friedman

The Tampa Bay Rays, who owned the best record in Major League Baseball (26-11) as the third week of May unfolded, can take solace in the fact that a strong start on the big league diamond usually leads to a successful finish. The baseball season is a slow-moving, lumbering show that puts on daily performances over a span of six months, and there is a propensity among the early-season also-rans to tell themselves "there's plenty of time" to catch up in the race.

But we all know that games in April and May count just as much as they do in September and October. And as every team in baseball cracks the 40-game plateau this week, it's a good time to take a look at the fastest starters in Major League history. While the Rays will not make the list of the 20 best starts in baseball annals, there are plenty of examples of teams that sprinted out of the gate and never let up.

For statistical purposes, we won’t count the 1902 Pittsburgh Pirates, as the first World Series wasn't played until the following year. That leaves us with 19 teams with the best starts—each winning at least 30 of its first 40 games. The odds such a team went on to win the Series are 1 in 1.9 (53%).

Of course, the odds are even better that a team that’s on fire in the spring will at least make it into the fall postseason, and 16 out of 19 did, making those odds 1 in 1.19 (84%).

At the top of the quintessential quick starter list were the 1984 Detroit Tigers, who flashed their way to a 35-5 record, the best 40-game start in baseball history. The "Bless You Boys" Tigers set the tone for the season when Jack Morris no-hit the Chicago White Sox on national TV the first Saturday of the season. By Game 40, they led the AL East by 8 1/2 games. They led by 10 on June 29 and from that point on never led their division by less than seven games. An offensive powerhouse, that Tigers team had six players in their starting lineup who batted .280 or better: Alan Trammell (.314), Lou Whitaker (.289), Barbero Garbey (.287), Chet Lemon (.287), Kirk Gibson (.282), and Larry Herndon (.280). They also had catcher Lance Parrish, who belted 33 home runs, and were led on the mound by Morris (19-11) and Dan Petry (18-8).

They were just as efficient in the postseason, sweeping the Kansas City Royals in the ALCS and dispatching the San Diego Padres in five games to win the World Series.

That might sound like good news for this year’s Rays, but they would be well advised to look more closely at the three teams who also won at least 30 of their first 40 games but, after going into the season like lions, finished like lambs, not even qualifying for the postseason.

The 1911 Detroit Tigers began the season 30-10 and were tied for first place in the American League as late as Aug. 5 with a 64-36 record. But they won only four of their next 12 games and 25 of their last 54 to finish 89-65, 13 1/2 games behind the Philadelphia A's. The Tigers' fold marred the performance of Hall of Famer Ty Cobb, in what might have been his greatest season. He led the majors in batting average (.420), runs (147), hits (248), triples (24), RBI (127), and stolen bases (83).

The 1921 Pittsburgh Pirates also opened the campaign with a 30-10 mark. Led by second baseman George Cutshaw (.340 batting average) and outfielder Carson Bigbee (.323, 17 triples), the Bucs were 76-40 on Aug. 22, when they held a 7 1/2-game lead in the National League. But they went 2-10 in their next 12 games, including five straight losses to the New York Giants, and went 14-23 in their final 37 games to finish 90-63, four games behind the Giants.

Then there was the case of the 1941 St. Louis Cardinals, who got off to a 31-9 start and finished 97-56—by all accounts, a good season. The Cards followed the lead of first baseman Johnny Mize, who batted .317 with 100 RBI, and Enos Slaughter, who hit .311 with 76 RBI. But they were never able to build a lead greater than four games, and never shook free of the Brooklyn Dodgers, who finished with a 17-8 stretch run to outdo the Cardinals' 14-11. The Cards wound up 2 1/2 games behind the NL champion Bums.

The moral of the story is: a bad closing act can be more memorable than a great opening one. And it's up to the Rays to make sure they keep fighting to the finish. The odds they won’t make the postseason? Those are 1 in 6.33.


Best 40-game starts in Major League history

* no World Series held