IStock Photo 3566877 © Pali Rao

In 1992, Shaquille O’Neal was chosen as the number-one overall pick in the NBA draft. Then, when he arrived in the league, he turned the subpar Orlando Magic into instant contenders, leading them from a 21-win season to a 41-41 record. O’Neal was such a dominating presence on the court that he ran away with Rookie of the Year honors.

By contrast, there was no runaway favorite for the 2010 award; Brandon Jennings of the Bucks, Stephen Curry of the Warriors, and Tyreke Evans of the Kings all enjoyed superb rookie seasons. None had been the number-one selection in the draft, though; that was Blake Griffin, who missed the whole season with a broken knee. Now that Evans of Sacramento has gotten the 2010 nod, there will no doubt be increased pressure on him to continue to perform.

But how often do the most highly touted NBA prospects live up to the hype?

Based on the 20-year period between 1980 and 2000, the answer is: about a third of the time. Indeed, they often make an impression right away: the odds a number-one pick in the NBA draft will be voted Rookie of the Year are 1 in 2.9. LeBron James (2003) and Derrick Rose (2008) both hit this mark.

So, for every Shaquille O’Neal who couldn’t miss, there was a Kwame Brown who couldn’t hit. Brown had shown so much promise he was drafted straight out of high school, the first pick in the 2001 draft. But he has fallen far short of expectations, having bounced around the league, unable to make a significant impact anywhere.

When it comes to young hopefuls, the 1990s was a particularly good period in the NBA. Eight times in the decade the top draft pick went on to win Rookie of the Year honors. In one stretch alone, between 1990 and 1994, every Rookie of the Year—David Robinson, Derrick Coleman, Larry Johnson, O’Neal, and Chris Webber—had been first overall picks in the NBA draft. All but Coleman went on to superlative careers.

Of all the highly touted basketball players who fulfilled expectations, you’d be hard pressed to find a better example than Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. From high school to college to the pros, Abdul-Jabbar was consistently the greatest player on his team. At Power Memorial Academy in New York City, he led his team to a 95-6 record that included a 71-game winning streak.

Then at UCLA, playing under coach John Wooden, Abdul-Jabbar led the Bruins to three NCAA championships in three years. In the NBA, where he played for 20 seasons, he was just as dominant, scoring the most points of any player in history, blocking the most shots, winning a record six Most Valuable Player awards, appearing in a record 19 All-Star games, and playing in six NBA championships.