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The Academy Awards often snub blockbusters when it comes to handing out Best Picture awards, but as soon as the tuxes come off, all eyes are back on the bottom line. So here’s a quick quiz: Based on past performance, which actor has the best shot of having their next movie make or break $100 million? Is it:

Jack Nicholson

Tom Cruise

Will Smith

Tom Hanks

Robert DeNiro

Al Pacino,

Jim Carrey

Harrison Ford

Johnny Depp

Sean Penn

While you make up your mind, let’s take a moment to consider the gargantuan personal earnings of Hollywood's elite.

From June '08 to June '09, according to Forbes Magazine, Tyler Perry earned more than $75 million. Adam Sandler came in at $55 million, Eddie Murphy and Nicolas Cage at $40 million apiece.

Directors fare even better than actors. Jerry Bruckheimer earned $100 million, Steven Spielberg $150 million, and—practically at the summit of Hollywood's pay scale—George Lucas earned $170 million.

But then there is Oprah. One year’s take: $275 million.

That’s quite a pay rate. Let’s say she limits herself to a 40-hour work week—that comes in at over $132,000 an hour. If you believe she should be paid for just being Oprah, even when she’s asleep or taking a bath or playing with her dogs, she still earned around $31,400 an hour for every single hour in the day.

Now back to our question. The answer is not Johnny Depp or even Tom Cruise. It is not Harrison Ford, despite the fact that he topped the 2009 Forbes List of highest paid actors, having raked in $65 million, thanks to his return stint as Indiana Jones. No, the star most likely to hit the magic $100 million dollar box office mark is:

Will Smith.

The odds a movie with Will Smith will earn $100,000,000 or more in ticket sales are 1 in 1.67, or 60%. No other actor can even boast of breaking 50%. The odds a movie with Tom Cruise, the second-biggest box-office draw, will earn $100,000,000 or more are 1 in 2.13 (47%). After that come Tom Hanks (his movies’ odds are 1 in 2.33), Jim Carrey (also 1 in 2.33), Eddie Murphy (1 in 2.69), and Adam Sandler (1 in 2.7).

For actresses, would you guess Sandra Bullock? Cameron Diaz? Meryl Streep? Amy Adams? How about the Kates—Winslet or Hudson?

The answer: Ms. Diaz. The odds a movie with her in it will earn $100,000,000 or more in ticket sales are 1 in 2.8.

Some of these popular actors and actresses actually have relatively low chance of bringing in the big box office bucks. The odds a movie will earn $100 M+ or more in ticket sales if it stars...

Jack Nicholson: 1 in 4.5

Johnny Depp: 1 in 7

Meryl Streep: 1 in 9

Al Pacino: 1 in 12

Robert DeNiro: 1 in 15

Kate Winslet: 1 in 22

To put it all in perspective, of course, Book of Odds must add that 1) quantity does not necessarily denote quality, and 2) much of the variance comes from career length or number of roles. Jack Nicholson, for instance, has been in film for over 50 years (since 1958's The Cry Baby Killer); Samuel L. Jackson, whose $100M+ odds are a modest 1 in 6.58, has starred in over 90 theatrically released features.