IStock Photo 9445952 © Don Bayley

Around the time the Starland Vocal Band won the 1977 Grammy Award for Best New Artist and promptly fell into one-hit-wonder obscurity (immediately followed by Debby Boone, who met the same fate), people started to wonder: does this award come with a curse?

Thirty years later, after Ruben Studdard took home the title “American Idol” and quickly gained 100 pounds and retreated from public view, people voiced the same concern. And that was before anyone had ever heard the name Taylor Hicks.

There may not be a curse hanging over these awards and contests, but there is a definite gender differential when it comes to success. Eight of the last 10 Best New Artists named at the Grammys have been women, even though the ladies have only a slight edge on the list of nominees.

Superstitions aside, many winners of the sometimes controversial Grammy have gone on to do mighty well for themselves. For every Debby Boone there’s a Sheryl Crow, for every Marc Cohn a Carrie Underwood. And for every Milli Vanilli—well, let’s just leave that one alone and think instead about winners who weren’t frauds, like the Joneses (Tom and Norah), LeAnn Rimes, Carly Simon, Mariah Carey, and Crosby, Stills, and Nash, all of whom went on to become superstars.

Oh, and those 4 boys from Liverpool—what were they called again?

While the Grammys honor artists who’ve already made a splash, American Idol is the go-to show for truly brand-new voices. The odds a person watches American Idol are 1 in 11.22. But is there a curse here? Or is an Idol win a ticket to lasting stardom?

Men and women might have different thoughts on the subject. So far, a female winner’s prognosis looks pretty good. Inaugural number one Kelly Clarkson has sold over 10 million albums and won 2 Grammys despite some career stumbles. The odds an American Idol winner will sell at least 2,000,000 albums are 1 in 1.5 (67%).

By contrast, her successor, the soft-spoken Ruben Studdard, managed a pretty quick disappearing act for such a big guy (runner-up Clay Aiken has stayed in the news, but not always for musical reasons). The crown returned to the estrogen team with the 3rd-season win by Fantasia Barrino, who followed up a #1 debut on the Billboard 100 Singles chart with 8 Grammy nominations and was a successful Broadway debut. Carrie Underwood (Season 4) broke all kinds of records with her first album, and her follow-up spawned 4 Number One country hits.

But then there’s Taylor Hicks, a controversially quirky winner with an old-school soul music sensibility. Arista Records signed, then dropped him; with his over-the-top persona he may have found a more comfortable home treading the boards (he’s been touring in Grease). Meanwhile Season 6 winner Jordin Sparks, the youngest victor, is on a roll, with a platinum debut, a Top Ten single from her sophomore release, and a Grammy nomination. Her second single, a duet with R&B star Chris Brown, sold over 3 million digital copies. The odds an American Idol winner will sell at least 4,000,000 digital downloads are 1 in 2.

It’s too soon to measure the staying power of Kris Allen (Season 8) or rocker David Cook (Season 7). Cook’s post-Idol debut album did go platinum, so there may yet be hope for the boys’ team. But if Grammy recognition is a measure of success, things aren’t looking so good for the men.

It’s hard to say what paths to stardom the new decade’s American Idol winners will take in this brave new digital world. But does the future look bright for a freshly minted Idol? Simon Says yes—at least, if she’s a girl.