Counting the Unemployed
IStock Photo 1260184 © Anne Stahl
Although it crops up more during a recession, concerns about who's got a job and who doesn't are never far from many people's minds. But just because you're out of work doesn't necessarily mean you're unemployed, so far as the government is concerned. In fact, with regard to labor statistics, you’re the second largest group there is.
Here's how it all works.
In the United States in 2009, the odds that a person 16 or older is not counted as part of the labor force are 1 in 2.86. That figure, by the way, doesn't come from the number of people filing for benefits from unemployment insurance. The government instead conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS). Economists prefer this survey because it includes people who are not currently filing for unemployment benefits.
Taking in some 60,000 households, the sample breaks the population down into two categories:
The labor force:
- People with jobs (employed)
- People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work (unemployed)
Those not in the labor force:
- People who are neither employed nor unemployed
People are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey week. Within this category is a subset known as “ with a job but not at work” which includes vacation time, illness, bad weather, and other factors. The odds someone 16 or older is considered employed are 1 in 1.71 (58%).
Persons are unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior four weeks, and are currently available for work. Although not working, they are still part of the labor force. The odds of being in this group are 1 in 15.4.
The last category is people who are not part of the labor force. This includes:
- Persons under 16 years of age
- Persons confined to institutions such as nursing homes and prisons
- Persons on active duty in the armed forces
Additionally, many who are not in the labor force are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others from working.
An additional subset is persons considered to be “ marginally attached to the labor force.” These are those without jobs who are not currently looking for work (and therefore are not counted as unemployed), but who nevertheless have demonstrated some interest in working (odds of this are 1 in 101.9). This group also includes “discouraged workers” who are not currently looking for work because they lack experience, feel they're victims of discrimination, or just believe no work is available. The odds of being in this group are 1 in 2.7—a telling statistic.








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