The Flying Game: the Chances of Being Canceled, Delayed, or Diverted
IStock Photo 5856628 © bunhill
Here’s what’s no fun: spending your night with 46 other angry stranded passengers cramped inside a diverted, smelly, grounded plane that won’t be going anywhere until Minnesotan airport employees wake up and go back to work. Then waiting in the airport a few more hours. Then getting back on the same plane.
The recent Continental flight debacle—in which a three-hour trip from Houston to Minneapolis turned into a fourteen-hour purgatory—is an outlier, even among flight delay horror stories. But in our age of congested hub airports and cash-strapped airlines, air travel inconvenience has become a fact of life.
December ranks as the very worst month for flying. Only 1 in 1.53 (65%) December flights arrives on time, 1 in 3.23 is delayed, and 1 in 30.65 is canceled. In fact, flying during any winter month is a little risky. February is another doozy. In that month, cancellations hit their yearly peak: 1 in 27.64 flights.
In contrast, October is the best time to fly. (Though who wants to fly in a season called “fall”?) In October, the odds a flight arrives on time are 1 in 1.16 (86%). The odds of delay are 1 in 7.57, and the odds of cancellation 1 in 171.2.
Cancellations and delays are fairly common inconveniences, but diversions are rarer birds—the odds a flight will be diverted are only 1 in 406. As with the Continental flight episode, diversions underscore the absurdity of plane travel. By car or train, you’d never start in San Salvador, head for LA, and wind up in Ontario. Only on a plane could strange odor problems land you in Tennessee when Dallas is your intended destination.
As with delays and cancellations, diversions peak in the winter. In December, when the weather is frightful and the transit system bulges with holiday travelers, 1 in 224.1 flights is diverted. (Compare that to merciful May, when only 1 in 709.9 flights makes an unscheduled stop.)
There’s some talk of legislation to prevent egregious flight nightmares.
But where’s the outrage about the high rate of December diversions? For some frazzled holiday travelers, phoning it in from a random airport may beat the strain of family gatherings and gift exchange. Sorry, Mom. My flight was diverted to Honolulu. See you next year!








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