IStock Photo 2265622 © Rockfinder

We have been caught up in Operation Mostarka. We got yanked for a mission in the middle of the night. Things have been crazy because of the mud and rain and road conditions. We were washed out of our original tent because of flooding and have been moved into a new tent, but we have been back and forth because of the missions we have been pulled to support in Helmand. We have bounced from Combat Outpost to Combat Outpost, sometimes working with Marines or British or Dutch. Can't go into details, but it’s a rude awakening before I thought we were going to be in the middle of it. We are doing okay though.

It’s got me thinking about Book of Odds, and odds in general. The chances of something bad happening to oneself is something that is often paramount in the mind of a soldier. What are the odds the next rocket is going to land right in the middle of our tent and kill me? Well, the base is so many square acres... and the kill radius of the rocket is such-and-such size... the accuracy of a Chinese- made type 32 rocket is within this range.

What are the odds that the next firefight I get in I could be shot? Well, the average Taliban fighter carries between 150 and 210 rounds on him, and will often only expend half of that. The body armor covers such-and-such percentage of my body mass, but it covers the most vital organs of the body, so the chances of a killing shot hitting me... it could really only kill me if it hits me in the head. I have a helmet that covers most of my head, but depending on the angle of the round, it may bounce off or maim me for the rest of my life...

...And then there are the IEDs. What are the chances of the IED killing me? Well, the survivability in my vehicle is such a percentage versus the size of the IED, but if they use this explosive instead of that explosive... and there are so many vehicles in my patrol to hit... and I am sitting in the back seat instead of the front, plus if my seatbelt is tight... what are the odds I could survive a thousand pound blast, maybe only losing my legs and eyesight? Well that’s good, I could have some normalcy of life... and maybe if we go slower and check all the culverts for IEDs... plus the chance they might have a complex ambush to include rocket propelled grenades... but the RPGs are type 2 Chinese knock-offs instead of the nasty type 7 ones... but the odds that they will have those are significantly lower, according to some egghead in the intel shop.

Just crunching some numbers I guess. I hate math. We talk about these odds all the time, like a person back in the states eating breakfast with their family and talking casually about the chances of being struck by lightning. It is real for us, and in the dark recesses of our own minds, we think about it constantly.

ODDS FACTS: The odds a US service member wounded in combat in Afghanistan was injured by an IED are 1 in 1.98 (AF, 10/2001 - 2/2010). The odds a US service member wounded in combat in Afghanistan was shot are 1 in 4.77 (AF, 10/2001 - 2/2010).

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